#55 - Baum on the Long-Term Future of Human Civilisation

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In this episode I talk to Seth Baum. Seth is an interdisciplinary researcher working across a wide range of fields in natural and social science, engineering, philosophy, and policy. His primary research focus is global catastrophic risk. He also works in astrobiology. He is the Co-Founder (with Tony Barrett) and Executive Director of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute. He is also a Research Affiliate of the University of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. We talk about the importance of studying the long-term future of human civilisation, and map out four possible trajectories for the long-term future.

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Show Notes

• 0:00 - Introduction

• 1:39 - Why did Seth write about the long-term future of human civilisation?

• 5:15 - Why should we care about the long-term future? What is the long-term future?

• 13:12 - How can we scientifically and ethically study the long-term future?

• 16:04 - Is it all too speculative?

• 20:48 - Four possible futures, briefly sketched: (i) status quo; (ii) catastrophe; (iii) technological transformation; and (iv) astronomical

• 23:08 - The Status Quo Trajectory - Keeping things as they are

• 28:45 - Should we want to maintain the status quo?

• 33:50 - The Catastrophe Trajectory - Awaiting the likely collapse of civilisation

• 38:58 - How could we restore civilisation post-collapse? Should we be working on this now?

• 44:00 - Are we under-investing in research into post-collapse restoration?

• 49:00 - The Technological Transformation Trajectory - Radical change through technology

• 52:35 - How desirable is radical technological change?

• 56:00 - The Astronomical Trajectory - Colonising the solar system and beyond

• 58:40 - Is the colonisation of space the best hope for humankind?

• 1:07:22 - How should the study of the long-term future proceed from here?

 

Relevant Links

• Seth's homepage

• The Global Catastrophic Risk Institute

• "Long-Term Trajectories for Human Civilisation" by Baum et al

• "The Perils of Short-Termism: Civilisation's Greatest Threat" by Fisher, BBC News

• The Knowledge by Lewis Dartnell

• "Space Colonization and the Meaning of Life" by Baum, Nautilus

• "Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development" by Nick Bostrom

• "Superintelligence as a Cause or Cure for Risks of Astronomical Suffering" by Kaj Sotala and Lucas Gloor

• "Space Colonization and Suffering Risks" by Phil Torres

• "Thomas Hobbes in Space: The Problem of Intergalactic War" by John Danaher

   

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